In 2023, Kenya exported goods valued at US $221 million to China, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Titanium ore was the top Kenyan export to China, making up 31% of the total export value that year. On 12th June, 2025, the Chinese administration announced a possible trade agreement amongst 53 African countries, excluding Eswatini due to its support of Taiwan independence, and China to give the African countries duty free access to the Chinese market and trade capacity building assistance. This pronouncement came during the Chinese-Africa foreign ministers meeting held in Beijing with the duty free promise coming after the 7th November 2024 commitment by China to allow Least Developed Countries (LDC) free market access as of 1st December, 2024.
Africa’s duty-free access to the Chinese market initiative is a welcome policy as it encourages an international trade best practice of a multilateral minimal to free market access especially coming after the uncertainty on AGOA and the US administration tariffs charged on Imports from the African continent. This blog intends to explore the market opportunity the possible preferential market access to China could be to Kenya.
Figure 1 illustrates the extent of growth of the import market into China over the last years with a comparison of Kenya’s export to the world in the same period to access their growth correlation. China’s inward international trade has exponential grown by around fourteenfold with Kenya’s outward international trade experiencing about threefold growth since 1998 in 2023.
China has been one of Kenya’s export of goods market over the years. As shown in figure one, Kenya had a relatively bigger share of the Chinese market in the late 90s in comparison to present times. The exponential growth of around 14 times between 1998 and 2023 of imports into China illustrates their big emerging market. Contrary, Kenya’s outward international trade has remained relatively low tripling over the same period of time an indication of a lag in taking advantage of existing markets for Kenya. The shortfall by Kenya can be traced to fiscal, monetary, real and external sector policy orientation in Kenya.
Table 1 shows exports of goods to China from Kenya using broad categories of products.
As of 2023 China accounted for about 3% of Kenya’s exports according to the Third Quarter, 2024 Balance of Payment Report by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, KNBS. China is not a major market for Kenya compared to other markets such as East Africa Community, the US and Europe nevertheless it provides a substantial market for minerals, vegetable, animal, metal and textile products as show in table 1.
Kenya mainly exports primary products inclusive of minerals, animal, vegetable, and metal products as shown in table 1. Primary products growth are fixed resources such as land or extraction mines hence their depletion is highly likely and expansion limited. Therefore, primary products exports are limited in the long run. However, for small economies whose output share is little in comparison to the total traded goods their primary products have an advantage over differentiated products as their market of destination can easily be shifted to the next available market in case a market faces constraints. Kenya contributed 0.004%, US $ 7.96B, of total exports of goods, US $ 22.6T, in 2023. On the contrary textile the fifth most traded product from Kenya into is a differentiated product. Kenya’s major export destination of textile, a differentiated product hence likely to lose a share of the market if the specific destination faces more tariffs or non-tariffs barriers, is the United State with a market value of Ksh 60.6 billion in 2023 about 70 times higher in value compared Ksh 849.1 million shown in table 1 exported to China. Duty free access to the Chinese market may allow Kenya’s textile to China to be more competitive hence allowing more exports to China.
Table 2 show tariffs applied to China’s imports as of 2023. The bounded duties show the highest possible tariffs that can be imposed on imports into China with Most Favoured Nations applied, MFN, showing the tariffs charged on China’s imports.
Kenya does not have a preferential trade agreement with China hence its export to China are charged using the MFN applied rate. The promise to give Africa hence giving Kenya a duty-free access to the growing Chinese import market as shown in figure 1 would increase Kenya’s products competitiveness in the Chinese market.
Averagely China has been charging 10% tariffs on all imports into China, an elimination of these tariffs for Kenya while holding all factors constant and assuming prices are elastic and other charges and costs remain constant, Kenya’s imports into china will have about 9% increased competitiveness. However, Kenya’s leading primary products export to China faces an almost equivalent increased competitiveness from its African competitors as the promise is likely to be extended to the African continent nevertheless it leaves the country at a more advantageous position against other global competitors in the Chinese market.
In conclusion, a unilateral free trade approach from China is promising although not officially ratified. Policies that allow for free trade are a welcome win for our small and open economy. Free trade reduces the trade-off between expensive domestic production given they can be purchased from more comparative advantageous producers in the globe hence freeing our resources to be directed to our comparative advantageous production amongst our trade partners hence optimising consumer surplus which trickles down to better societal welfare and availability of income for saving and investment. To achieve free trade it is important that Kenya cuts or fully eliminate its high tariffs. Kenya should leverage on duty-free market access by pushing for multilateral free trade for growth and development outlined within the ruled based international trade organised through World Trade Organisation.
Kenya has benefited from its relations with the world. Multilateral, plurilateral or bilateral relationships with other countries has increased Kenyan firms and individuals market access, peace cooperations, import sources and aid. Kenya has trade relations with the United State of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. One of the most consequential relationships between the […]
The National Infrastructure Fund Act (No. 4 of 2026) took effect on 25 March 2026 with a headline financing target: to raise about Ksh 5 trillion over ten years for highways, railways, ports, energy, information and communications technology, water and irrigation. The plan works like this. Privatization proceeds become the Fund’s starting capital. That capital […]
Introduction The matatu metaphor can be used to analytically frame Kenya’s budget as a system that is subject to binding constraints, evolving expectations, and continuous adjustment to shocks. Like the matatu sector, fiscal policy reflects a balancing act between efficiency and quick action seeking to respond to public service delivery while constrained by competing sector […]
Introduction Imagine paying the same fare to travel at 6 a.m. as you would at 6 p.m., even though the matatu is half-empty in the morning and packed in the evening. At 6 a.m., there may be more seats available than passengers willing to pay for them. By 6 p.m., the situation is reversed. Hundreds […]
Absurd hypotheticals are useful precisely because they stress-test a system until its constraints become visible. This note asks what would break first if SpaceX, now a public company following its record-breaking Nasdaq debut in June 2026, with a post-IPO market value of approximately US$ 2.5 trillion, sought a secondary cross-listing on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. […]
| Post date: Thu, Jul 10, 2025 |
| Category: International Trade |
| By: Moses Muchiri Mwangi, |
In 2023, Kenya exported goods valued at US $221 million to China, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Titanium ore was the top Kenyan export to China, making up 31% of the total export value that year. On 12th June, 2025, the Chinese administration announced a possible trade agreement amongst 53 African countries, excluding Eswatini due to its support of Taiwan independence, and China to give the African countries duty free access to the Chinese market and trade capacity building assistance. This pronouncement came during the Chinese-Africa foreign ministers meeting held in Beijing with the duty free promise coming after the 7th November 2024 commitment by China to allow Least Developed Countries (LDC) free market access as of 1st December, 2024.
Africa’s duty-free access to the Chinese market initiative is a welcome policy as it encourages an international trade best practice of a multilateral minimal to free market access especially coming after the uncertainty on AGOA and the US administration tariffs charged on Imports from the African continent. This blog intends to explore the market opportunity the possible preferential market access to China could be to Kenya.
Figure 1 illustrates the extent of growth of the import market into China over the last years with a comparison of Kenya’s export to the world in the same period to access their growth correlation. China’s inward international trade has exponential grown by around fourteenfold with Kenya’s outward international trade experiencing about threefold growth since 1998 in 2023.
China has been one of Kenya’s export of goods market over the years. As shown in figure one, Kenya had a relatively bigger share of the Chinese market in the late 90s in comparison to present times. The exponential growth of around 14 times between 1998 and 2023 of imports into China illustrates their big emerging market. Contrary, Kenya’s outward international trade has remained relatively low tripling over the same period of time an indication of a lag in taking advantage of existing markets for Kenya. The shortfall by Kenya can be traced to fiscal, monetary, real and external sector policy orientation in Kenya.
Table 1 shows exports of goods to China from Kenya using broad categories of products.
As of 2023 China accounted for about 3% of Kenya’s exports according to the Third Quarter, 2024 Balance of Payment Report by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, KNBS. China is not a major market for Kenya compared to other markets such as East Africa Community, the US and Europe nevertheless it provides a substantial market for minerals, vegetable, animal, metal and textile products as show in table 1.
Kenya mainly exports primary products inclusive of minerals, animal, vegetable, and metal products as shown in table 1. Primary products growth are fixed resources such as land or extraction mines hence their depletion is highly likely and expansion limited. Therefore, primary products exports are limited in the long run. However, for small economies whose output share is little in comparison to the total traded goods their primary products have an advantage over differentiated products as their market of destination can easily be shifted to the next available market in case a market faces constraints. Kenya contributed 0.004%, US $ 7.96B, of total exports of goods, US $ 22.6T, in 2023. On the contrary textile the fifth most traded product from Kenya into is a differentiated product. Kenya’s major export destination of textile, a differentiated product hence likely to lose a share of the market if the specific destination faces more tariffs or non-tariffs barriers, is the United State with a market value of Ksh 60.6 billion in 2023 about 70 times higher in value compared Ksh 849.1 million shown in table 1 exported to China. Duty free access to the Chinese market may allow Kenya’s textile to China to be more competitive hence allowing more exports to China.
Table 2 show tariffs applied to China’s imports as of 2023. The bounded duties show the highest possible tariffs that can be imposed on imports into China with Most Favoured Nations applied, MFN, showing the tariffs charged on China’s imports.
Kenya does not have a preferential trade agreement with China hence its export to China are charged using the MFN applied rate. The promise to give Africa hence giving Kenya a duty-free access to the growing Chinese import market as shown in figure 1 would increase Kenya’s products competitiveness in the Chinese market.
Averagely China has been charging 10% tariffs on all imports into China, an elimination of these tariffs for Kenya while holding all factors constant and assuming prices are elastic and other charges and costs remain constant, Kenya’s imports into china will have about 9% increased competitiveness. However, Kenya’s leading primary products export to China faces an almost equivalent increased competitiveness from its African competitors as the promise is likely to be extended to the African continent nevertheless it leaves the country at a more advantageous position against other global competitors in the Chinese market.
In conclusion, a unilateral free trade approach from China is promising although not officially ratified. Policies that allow for free trade are a welcome win for our small and open economy. Free trade reduces the trade-off between expensive domestic production given they can be purchased from more comparative advantageous producers in the globe hence freeing our resources to be directed to our comparative advantageous production amongst our trade partners hence optimising consumer surplus which trickles down to better societal welfare and availability of income for saving and investment. To achieve free trade it is important that Kenya cuts or fully eliminate its high tariffs. Kenya should leverage on duty-free market access by pushing for multilateral free trade for growth and development outlined within the ruled based international trade organised through World Trade Organisation.
Kenya has benefited from its relations with the world. Multilateral, plurilateral or bilateral relationships with other countries has increased Kenyan firms and individuals market access, peace cooperations, import sources and aid. Kenya has trade relations with the United State of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. One of the most consequential relationships between the […]
The National Infrastructure Fund Act (No. 4 of 2026) took effect on 25 March 2026 with a headline financing target: to raise about Ksh 5 trillion over ten years for highways, railways, ports, energy, information and communications technology, water and irrigation. The plan works like this. Privatization proceeds become the Fund’s starting capital. That capital […]
Introduction The matatu metaphor can be used to analytically frame Kenya’s budget as a system that is subject to binding constraints, evolving expectations, and continuous adjustment to shocks. Like the matatu sector, fiscal policy reflects a balancing act between efficiency and quick action seeking to respond to public service delivery while constrained by competing sector […]
Introduction Imagine paying the same fare to travel at 6 a.m. as you would at 6 p.m., even though the matatu is half-empty in the morning and packed in the evening. At 6 a.m., there may be more seats available than passengers willing to pay for them. By 6 p.m., the situation is reversed. Hundreds […]
Absurd hypotheticals are useful precisely because they stress-test a system until its constraints become visible. This note asks what would break first if SpaceX, now a public company following its record-breaking Nasdaq debut in June 2026, with a post-IPO market value of approximately US$ 2.5 trillion, sought a secondary cross-listing on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. […]