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Alternative Budget 2026/27

The IEA Kenya presents an alternative fiscal path/scenario for FY 2026/27 across key fiscal aggregates – revenue, expenditure and fiscal balances as a critique of the National Treasury’s budget estimates. This is not a complete alternative budget given its focus is limited to fiscal aggregates/budget outturn. Based on the national budget estimates of revenue and expenditure for FY 2026/27, the IEA Kenya used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) statistical model to generate its own fiscal forecasts.