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Publications By Author : Kwame Owino

27 Found

Date	Details	Document
Wed, Oct 30, 2024	Webinar #24/2024: Refuting The Fallacy: Democracy is Not Essential for Economic Development Author(s) Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa, Theme: Economic Literacy,	File Size: 852.43 KB No of Downloads: 53.
Tue, Oct 29, 2024	Webinar #25/2024: Pure Public Goods vs. Constitutional Theory of Public Goods: What It Means for the Size of Government Author(s) Kwame Owino, Leo Kipkogei Kemboi, Theme: Economic Literacy,	File Size: 1.38 MB No of Downloads: 105.
Fri, Aug 9, 2024	Webinar #20/2024: How Fragile is Kenya?; Reading Kenya’s Score on the Fragile State Index 2024 Author(s) Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa, Theme: Economic Literacy,	File Size: 294.09 KB No of Downloads: 122.
Wed, Jul 17, 2024	And Then, Floods…A critical macroeconomic assessment of IMF Conditionality on Kenya, 2021-present Author(s) Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa, Peter Doyle, Theme: Public Debt, By April 2021, in the context of long-standing deep growth shortfalls, a heavily overvalued exchange rate, an excessively loose fiscal stance, and an elevated public debt stock, Kenya’s prospects were threatened by rising global interest rates, a large bullet payment due, and droughts. What was needed was an IMF program to deliver an immediate change in the policy mix, with a sharp front-loaded fiscal consolidation to allow a monetary loosening sufficient to correct the exchange rate and inward orientation while keeping inflation on target. But the total fiscal correction should not have been at the expense of medium-term growth, even if that required debt write-offs to reconcile it debt sustainability. And the entire package should also have been resilience to further shocks. But that was not the program that Kenya got. The program misdiagnosed misalignment, thus back-loaded fiscal adjustment, and required medium-term primary fiscal balances well above global best practice at the expense of growth potential, all reflected in relentless tax increases. And when its conditionality on the Central Bank of Kenya turned out to be mis specified—including that in practice it treated a large non-permanent relative food price shock as a matter only of inflation—that was not corrected. So, the program also delivered a monetary stance which was too tight, impeding the necessary correction in the exchange rate, all at the expense of short-run growth as well. These basic failures of quality control at the IMF meant that the program achieved neither its stated goals nor the fundamental correction that was required—hence major nationwide social unrest. A reset of the program for 2024/25 should be led by an immediate big relaxation in monetary policy, an unchanged underlying primary balance outturn of a deficit of 1 percent of GDP remaining there thereafter, leaving revenue ratio targets to the authorities, and activating a targeted program of income support given food price shocks. If that requires debt write offs to secure sustainability, those should be calibrated against a medium-term primary deficit of 1 percent of GDP. Alongside a major retrenchment in the number of conditions and an increase in IMF transparency are necessary.	File Size: 12.45 MB No of Downloads: 2566.
Thu, May 9, 2024	Webinar #12/2024: Refuting the Fallacy:Kenya Needs a Strong Currency Author(s) Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa, Theme: Economic Literacy,	File Size: 2.59 MB No of Downloads: 230.
Tue, Apr 2, 2024	Webinar #9/2024: The Economics of White Elephants: What are the Lessons for Kenya? Author(s) Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa, Theme: Economic Literacy, This webinar presentation on The Economics of White Elephants: What are the Lessons for Kenya? was done on Tuesday, 2nd April 2024.	File Size: 1.26 MB No of Downloads: 300.
Wed, Aug 9, 2023	IEA Kenya Webinar #25/2023: Key Insights from the Kenya Poverty Report Author(s) Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa, Theme: Economic Development, Economic Growth, This presentation was made by Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa and Noah Wamalwa during a webinar on Key Insights from the Kenya Poverty Report held on Wednesday, 9th August 2023.	File Size: 2.42 MB No of Downloads: 545.
Tue, Jul 25, 2023	IEA Kenya Webinar #23/2023: How Will The Kenyan Government Finance Deficit in The FY 2023/24 Author(s) Kwame Owino, Maureen Barasa, Theme: Finance, This presentation was made by Maureen Barasa and Kwame Owino during a webinar on How Will The Kenyan Government Finance Deficit in The FY 2023/24 held on Tuesday, 25th July 2023	File Size: 381.75 KB No of Downloads: 511.
Mon, May 8, 2023	IEA Kenya Webinar #13/2023: Examining Government of Kenya’s Fiscal Data Up to March 2023: What Does it tell us? Author(s) Kwame Owino, Noah Wamalwa, Theme: Budget, This presentation was made by Kwame Owino and Noah Wamalwa during the Virtual public forum on Examining Government of Kenya’s Fiscal Data Up to March 2023: What Does it tell us? held on Thursday, 4th May 2023	File Size: 1.3mb No of Downloads: 606.