The First Take on Manifestos

Post date: Wed, Feb 6, 2013
Category: Democracy
By: Kwame Owino,

Every pre-election political season is justifiably characterized by speeches and promises issued during campaigns on rostrums. This season started with candidates and wannabe runners issuing individual political programmes and has culminated in coalitions issuing joint manifestos and governance plans. On the other hand, commentators and the various media have insisted that political campaigns are about issues and not sectional interests.

Whatever the performance and individual voter preferences, the effort that the parties and coalitions haveexpended leads to some conclusions. First, it is clear that Kenyans and the media in general are fastidious. Despite contrary claims, it is no longer defensible to claim that political parties either have no considered programmes, or that these manifestos are similar. My review of the documents issued by the CORD and Jubilee coalitions shows just the opposite. To be clear, both coalitions deserve unreserved credit for putting together and publishing these manifestoes to begin with. It is also very clear that if one takes time to go through them, there are as many common things said in them as there are real differences. Hence Kenyans really have a choice to make, judging by the two manifestoes that have been published. It lies ill in any observer’s mouth to dismiss the publications as generic manifestoes written by consultants.

Secondly, it is also clear that there are common threads running through both the manifestos published by the main coalitions. The overall frameworks and proposals tell us about the common belief among the presidential contenders about government and its functions in society. Every party and its leading candidate seem to have an enormous faith in the ability and availability of government to resolve large social problems. This is discernible in proposals that always involve either inserting government in public affairs or directing public spending. These manifestos contain very few instances in which the proposals consider that some issues may arise from a surfeit of government. For instance, each manifesto under reference correctly identifies the issue of youth unemployment and all suggest that government tinkering here and there with loans, vocational training and creation of industries is the solution. As a political philosophy, none of the coalitions contemplate the alternative means that would involve providing the means and not engineering the result.

Thirdly, judged by the approaches to solving the policy issues that they identify, the manifestos do not score very highly in policy innovation. And this is a natural result from belief in the power of government to determine outcomes. It appears that political parties and the policy wonks that advise them have a very tired repertoire of solutions to identified problems. Here too, there is the scramble to promise quick solutions and characteristic spending of money as a solution to nearly every problem. Especially of concern is the tendency to create or augment existing funds such as the Youth Enterprise Development Fund without the promise or undertaking to review their performance and cost-effectiveness first. Each coalition is making the promise to expand loans programmes to the youth, expand universal health care, education and to create new institutions to nurture talent, arts in a broad range of activities. In short, government institutions will cover nearly every work and leisure activity.

Political contests must of necessity involve the discussion about the ability to be trusted with public resources and their deployment. Each of the manifestos is either lacking or very light on the management of public finances and the quest to raise new revenue. It is unclear whether the dearth of ideas on public debt and revenue generation is deliberate but it is altogether telling. Promises of tax cuts and incentives to entrepreneurs on the one hand and provision of state-funded services, pensions and subsidies across the board are only realistic where they are also backed by new initiatives for either cut-backs or revenue generation. Essentially therefore, the tenor of the manifestos creates the impression that the presidency is primarily an “economic development officer” who has no limits in financial or other resources and merely needs to start spending in line with the manifesto.

It is not possible to tell why either the CORD or Jubilee coalitions prefer certain outcomes and the list of items placed in the manifestos are not prioritized. A coalition that highlights the rejuvenation of cooperative societies as a mechanism for expanding savings ought to justify why conventional banking institutions are not preferred. On the other hand, if another coalition highlights support for expanded secondary school places, it should be alert to the superfluous claim that public secondary schools must take at least half of students from public primary schools. The reality is that the vast majority of students attending secondary schools in Kenya are educated in public schools. This is a target that is already achieved by default.

Mixing this last point with the commitment to constitutional implementation, it is clear that the parties have not fully appreciated the degree to which the constitutional terrain governing the presidency and the executive branch of government has changed. While assertions of income inequality in Kenya are taken as a fact that needs to be resolved, the solutions that are proposed in the quest to prove that parties are “pro-poor” are not properly tested by law. For instance, it is taken for granted that discrimination between pupils based on the income of their parents is constitutionally supportable. The proposals assume that public affairs will be the preserve of the executive. Coalitions must read the constitution again because this interpretation is likely to be challenged very strongly in due course.

The details of the policy proposals can be analyzed for their coherence and fitness but a general piece of advice is for the leaders of coalitions to look at quarterly budget returns. They will be taking over office at a time when revenue will probably be in grave demand and the proliferation of offices and goodies that you propose will not take place alongside a nearly empty cupboard. A balance in the discussion requires proposals for cutting expenditure and raising new revenue. That is a difficult task that they face.

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