Fact Sheet on Analysis of Kenya’s Supplementary Estimates -FY 2024/25

The supplementary estimates should be prepared in line with article 223 of the Constitution of Kenya and section 44 of the Public Finance Management Act, 2012. The revision of the approved expenditure estimates for the financial year 2024/25 was necessitated by the withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024. The bill was projected to raise additional revenue amounting to Ksh. 346 Billion. This revenue shortfall will be financed by both borrowing and by government undertaking budget cuts within its various programs.

Budget Guide for the Financial Year 2024/2025

This analysis of Budget 2024/2025 interrogates the extent to which the budget is aligned to fiscal consolidation agenda and the government budget theme “sustaining Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA)^[1], fiscal consolidation and investing in climate change mitigation and adaptation for improved livelihoods” In relation to this, it focuses on big expenditure items, how the overall budget will be financed and reaffirms the priority policies and strategies under BETA  which are prioritized in the Fourth Medium Term Plan of the Vision 2030.

In terms of organization, this analysis first presents the macroeconomic performance for the country over the years, an overview of the entire budget, then proceeds with expenditure analysis that looks at issues of mandatory spending and what this means to budget flexibility, a brief on judiciary and what is expected in terms of sectoral priorities.

In addition to providing information to stir up public debate of the budget, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA)-Kenya through this brief point out policy concerns and issues that parliamentarians and citizen’s may raise and consider in their scrutiny and interrogation of the budget 2024/2025.

[1] This Development Agenda recognizes the importance of managing the cost of living through well-functioning markets to enhance increased production and productivity, availability and affordability of goods and services for all citizens. Indeed, market failures in sectors that supported the economy are glaring. The interventions target five core priority areas namely: i) Agricultural Transformation and Inclusive Growth; ii) Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) Economy; iii) Housing and Settlement; iv) Healthcare; and v) Digital Superhighway and Creative Industry.

Fact Sheet on Socio-economic Data: Isiolo; Kakamega; Kilifi; Mombasa and Nakuru Counties

The Closing Gaps in Devolved Health Service Delivery1 is a five-year USAID-funded project implemented by the Institute of Economic Affairs in consortium with its partners Concern Worldwide, Development Initiatives and Urban Institute. The interventions fashioned for the project are premised on responding to three overlapping and contextual challenges of (i) inadequate health financing and inefficiencies in spending;

(ii) weak oversight and accountability; and (iii) gaps in health policies which impede county delivery of quality health services.

This document presents the FACT SHEET on Social and Economic Indicators for the five project focus counties – Isiolo, Kakamega, Kilifi, Mombasa and Nakuru. This health and socio-economic fact sheet will provide a baseline information set for the first project objective on inadequate health financing. As part of the project baseline analysis which will lead to co-creation with the target counties, this fact sheet provides a well of information which will underpin the development of the questionnaire for the political economy analysis (PEA) for each of the five counties. While this fact sheet will feed into the baseline data, it will also be useful for driving evidence driven discourse.

The FACT SHEET on Social and Economic Indicators is a compendium of data points on administrative, demographic, gender, health, and public finance management at the national and county levels of government.

In 2013 Kenya commenced the transition from a centralized to a decentralized governance system comprising of the national government and 47 county governments. Devolution aims to enhance service delivery to citizens by bringing the resources closer to them. Among the devolved functions is health with national government retaining the functions of policy formulation and managing the referral hospitals. As highlighted in Article 186 of the Constitution of Kenya, 2010 there exist exclusive and shared functions and powers of the respective levels of government therefore creating the need to track and compare the progress made across counties post devolution.

Analysis of the Auditor General’s Report on the Financial Statements of the Kitui County Executive: FY 2020/21 – 2021/22

In the Financial Year 2021/2022, Kitui county committed to spend Ksh. 499,555,498 in healthcare facilities that were never completed. In trying to ascertain the specific project, Audit revealed that the project files were not provided for audit verification and information available indicated that the projects started way back in 2017. The people were denied access to medical services that would have been tenable had the project been completed. The county government cannot show value for money for such an expensive venture

Analysis of the Auditor General’s Report on the Financial Statements of the Kisumu County Executive: FY 2020/21 – 2021/22

There was a decrease in amount queried, from Ksh 5.1 billion in FY 2020/21 to Ksh 3.8 billion in FY 2021/2022. However, the actual number of audit queries increased from the previous audited county financial statements.

• • Violation of financial regulation increased from 15 cases to 27 cases, lack of supporting documents increased from 20 cases to 25 cases while failure to reconcile shot up from 3 cases to 25 cases and no value for money reported 16 cases from one case in the previous year.
  • The queries revolved around, failure to reconcile books of account, lack of supporting documents, violation of financial regulations, no value for money and pending bills. Most of these issued have been carried forward without any resolutions

Analysis of National Government Budget Implementation Report for FY 2022/23

Analysis of Kitui County First Quarter (Q1), Second Quarter (Q2) and Third Quarter (Q3) of Financial Year 2022/23 Budget Implementation Report

The IEA-Kenya in partnership with the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and CARITUS Kitui, synthesized the first, Second, third quarter of 2022/23 BIRR for Kitui County as part of the “Financial Transparency and Accountability” project. In the analysis, the objective is to establish whether budget implementation is progressing according to the approved budget. Whereas in practice budgets may not always be implemented exactly as they were approved, this analysis will attempt to explain any significant gaps, as these may raise credibility issues.

This brief is intended for public education and policy discourse.Ultimately, this is expected to enhance citizen participation and voice in closing the accountability loop of the budget cycle

KENYA IN 2040: Mapping Kenya’s future – Four different scenarios

The Institute of Economic Affairs in Kenya has established a tradition of periodically reflecting on visible and less palpable trends in Kenya’s socio-political and economic environment. This curiosity is informed by the need to generate insights and attempt to direct disciplined conversations on the future of Kenya, its institutions, and its people.

It is evident that 2022 presents an opportunity to re-examine and reflect on Kenya’s future. Kenyan society and the country’s economy, still coming to terms with the covid-19 pandemic, now have to navigate a global geopolitical transition that will have lasting repercussions. While these exogenous shocks are out of the country’s control, Kenya’s ability to deal with a changing external environment and pursue its national development goals are very much a function of its institutions and policy framework. Accordingly, the Kenya in 2040 scenarios will focus on the quality of these institutions and the direction policy takes. Scenario building techniques are important in moments of uncertainty and as tools for questioning comfortable narratives that people are accustomed to telling themselves

In addition to the qualitative analysis of the interplay between institutions and policies, the IEA has partnered with Oxford Economics Africa to lend this scenario analysis qualitative credibility by formally modelling the various scenarios. Not only does this produce a more vibrant picture of the economic outcomes, but it also allows for more informed discussion and policy debates. Unlike many other scenario projects that have been undertaken, this edition contains an element of prescription. We maintain that the country’s future is far from pre-determined, and that healthy debate and public discourse is the main channel through which to pursue the most desired outcome. May the scenarios presented in this publication contribute towards identifying that outcome and making Kenya’s path towards that outcome clearer.

Citizen’s Alternative Budget 2023/2024

The Citizen’s Alternative Budget contains budget proposals from the public and private sector stakeholders, who attended the IEA annual pre-budget hearings that took place on 18^th and 19^th January, 2023 virtually. The proposals submitted were consolidated and synthesized by the IEA according to the various Medium Terms Expenditure Framework (MTEF) sectors, largely based on their feasibility, whether they make economic sense and whether they are in line with the national priorities of the government. Furthermore, this alternative budget takes cognizance of the budget policy statement 2023/2024 as a pre-budget statement that sets the macroeconomic framework through which the government will prepare the forthcoming budget and the National Treasury notices on the guidelines on budget proposal submissions for the fiscal budget for the financial year 2023/2024.